Bayesian realism

But what happened? I found myself asking, a couple of days ago, after I finished Stanislaw Lem's novel The Investigation. I think this is a natural if philistine question. The book presents itself as a detective novel, after all. The opening scene even takes place at Scotland Yard, in an office that seems like an archetype of the genre. Here's how the hero, a novice detective named Gregory, describes the room:

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